The new playbook

by

Caleb Barnett is grateful to be in his current position.

Barnett established himself as one of the top baseball players in his class many years ago, even before his family moved to Alabama two years ago.

Following his freshman year, Barnett received an offer from Alabama and committed to playing college ball for the Crimson Tide. He knows that his reality could have been much different if he had delayed his decision.

“I was fortunate enough to commit early and not have to deal with being recruited against the transfer portal,” said Barnett, acknowledging that athletes in today’s landscape of college athletics are dealing with a challenging set of circumstances.

The recent Mountain Brook High School graduate enjoyed the recruiting process, he said. It was the realization of a future goal and allowed him to continue striving to be better.

“After committing, I mainly focused on improving myself,” the 2024 Starnes Media All-South Metro Hitter of the Year said.

Standing out above the crowd has remained necessary, particularly in an age where high school prospects have less numerous opportunities.

“There are fewer scholarship spots,” said ESPN recruiting analyst Tom Luginbill. “Schools used to divide scholarships among high school prospects. Now, they save 12 to 14 for portal players. High school kids have fewer options and many are being forced into choices they wouldn’t have made otherwise.”

SHIFTING SAND

Coaches are no longer building around potential. They’re buying certainty.

Between the rise of the transfer portal, the explosion of Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) dollars, and the impending House v. NCAA court settlement — which could allow direct revenue-sharing paychecks from schools to athletes — the entire scholarship model has changed.

For high school seniors, that means fewer opportunities. Unless you’re elite like Barnett, the message is clear: wait your turn — or get left behind.

In place of the old system is a new billion-dollar industry in which high school prospects are still commodities — just ones with less value than they held before the money started flowing.

Not all college programs play on the same field. The Power Four conferences — the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC — have TV deals, booster collectives and NIL opportunities.

Below them are Group of Five schools like UAB, Jacksonville State or Troy — with fewer scholarships, smaller budgets and less exposure. Then come FCS, D2 and junior colleges, where many now land by necessity.

THE PORTAL JAM

For decades, high school football was the bedrock of college recruiting. Talent rose, coaches scouted, scholarships followed and dreams materialized on National Signing Day.

That world is gone.

It started with COVID. In 2020, the NCAA granted all athletes an extra year of eligibility. That decision created a massive traffic jam. Fifth-year seniors stayed. Sixth-year players reclassified. Scholarships that would have gone to high school seniors disappeared.

Then came NIL. In July 2021, athletes could finally earn money off their name, image and likeness. But what was meant to reward marketability became a loosely disguised pay-for-play market.

“Monetary compensation is no longer based on results,” Luginbill said. “It’s not about ‘if I produce, schools will want me.’ Now, it’s ‘how much are you going to pay me to play here?’ There’s no accountability from the player’s side, and that’s not what NIL was intended for — certainly not in recruiting.”

At the same time, the transfer portal exploded. The NCAA removed the sit-out rule for first-time transfers, and a flood of player movement followed. A new reality emerged: Why recruit a high school senior you’ll have to develop when you can buy a 22-year-old with experience?

“Unless you’ve been tampered with or have significant production, you’re either transferring down or walking on somewhere,” Luginbill said. “The math doesn’t add up. There just aren’t enough roster spots. Kids are being misled, believing they’re worth more than they are. This is happening to thousands of players.”

According to On3 Sports, more than 4,000 FBS football players entered the NCAA transfer portal during this cycle — and more than 1,600 are still looking for a home. In men’s basketball, 2,320 players entered the portal this spring, per Verbal Commits — a jump of more than 11 percent from last year and nearly 2.5 times more than five years ago.

This isn’t just a revenue-sport issue. Since the NCAA eliminated its one-year sit-out rule in 2021, tens of thousands of athletes across all sports have entered the portal — many of them two, three or even four times. Each year of the NIL era has accelerated the cycle. In 2024, the NCAA opened the door to unlimited transfers.

Combine that with the backlog of COVID players, and the result is a recruiting funnel that narrows further every season. And it’s about to get even tighter, as schools prepare for revenue sharing and potential roster caps tied to the House settlement.

Coach Trent Dilfer came to UAB with a plan to build his program through high school recruiting — but that vision didn’t hold. He watched promising redshirt freshmen get poached, impact players leave mid-development and recruiting calendars shift. Now, he’s saving scholarships for older transfers. Like most coaches, he’s frustrated by the chaos and eager for structure.

“All I need is guardrails, all I need is boundaries, all I need is where it is,” Dilfer told Birmingham’s CBS 42. “I don't care where the goal post is, just keep it stationary… Because right now this goal post is going around 360 degrees because there’s zero leadership, there’s zero boundaries, there’s zero guardrails.”

MANAGING EXPECTATIONS

But this isn’t just about numbers. It’s about expectations — and the widening gap between what kids believe they’re walking into and what actually waits.

For years, high school athletes have been surrounded by talk of NIL money, brand building and recruiting leverage. Highlight reels and camp circuits — all of it reinforcing the same narrative: play well, get noticed, get paid. But most never make it that far.

“High school kids now believe they’re entitled to compensation,” Luginbill said. “But the original intent was that if a college athlete… became a marketable commodity, they could earn income. What we’re seeing now is far removed from that.”

Even for players who eventually cash in, the road usually starts somewhere less glamorous — a Group of Five

school, a redshirt year, a position change, a climb.

“The transfer portal has made it harder for high schoolers to land spots at Power Four programs,” said Jim Cavale, CEO of Athletes.org. “Starting at a Group of Five school and working your way up may be the best path.”

If it looks a bit familiar to Barnett, it’s because it has evolved very much like minor-league baseball.

“Worrying about playing time in your first two years at college is a legitimate concern now due to the transfer portal where teams can simply get a more experienced and older player instantly,” he said. “That fact alone has caused recruits to switch schools or choose carefully…”

“I’ve known kids who have committed to schools that would be considered ‘below their level’ simply due to guaranteed playing time freshman year with the plan to transfer out to a higher level school the next year.”

BACK-END FALLOUT

While these dynamics affect every sport, the epicenter is football and men’s basketball — where the bulk of the money flows and the pressure to win immediately is highest.

According to research on signing day trends, once-powerhouse programs are producing fewer high-major signees and more D2, JUCO and NAIA placements. In other sports — baseball, wrestling, lacrosse, even track — the scholarship slots are already shrinking. If roster caps go into effect, they may vanish altogether.

Whatever happens next — roster limits, direct pay, new NIL rules — the path for high school athletes is narrowing fast. And for players like Barnett, that means more than just navigating offers. It means trying to stay in the game.

Barnett will potentially have a decision to make this summer on whether to attend Alabama or, depending on where he is drafted, to pursue professional baseball immediately.

“I’m excited for the future either way,” he said. “I’m blessed to be in such a good position where I’m choosing between professional baseball or an excellent SEC collegiate team.”