Chamber luncheon speaker discusses ‘politics (not) as usual’

The 2016 presidential race and its candidates could be described with two sets of Billy Joel lyrics, said Birmingham-Southern College political science professor Natalie Davis.

For Hillary Clinton, “Honesty is such a lonely word/ Everyone is so untrue/ Honesty is hardly ever heard/ And mostly what I need from you.” For Trump, “You may be right/ I may be crazy/ But it just may be a lunatic you’re looking for.”

Davis shared these lyrics, along with her insight on the current political climate and upcoming election, during the Aug. 25 Mountain Brook Chamber of Commerce luncheon at the Birmingham Botanical Gardens.

In this year’s race, Davis said of the two main candidates, most people do not like either option.

“How did we get there? What really got us there?” she said. “When I think about this, I have a couple of answers, and those answers most of you have heard already.”

To start, Davis said there is a “populist revolt” at work, meaning average people feel like the government does not work for them. On the right, people are angry at the establishment, Davis said. On the left, she added, they’re angry about income inequality. That dissatisfaction can be seen in this year’s election through the popularity of candidates such as Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, Davis said.

Because November is a four-way race, including candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, Davis said the main party candidates are not vying over the “persuadable” 20 percent of the population – instead, Davis says she guesses this race looks like Trump can expect 43 percent of voters, Clinton can expect 43 percent of voters, Johnson and Stein can expect a collective 8-10 percent of voters and about 4 percent of voters are up for grabs.

“A candidate has two strategies to think about,” Davis said. “One, can I get to that 4 percent? How do I reach that 4 percent and persuade those folks to be with me? Or, do I not worry about that so much and simply try to get out my vote?”

Clinton is working to attract voters from several pools — African Americans, Hispanics, union people, gays, women, while Trump is working to reach some of the voters he did not connect with during his primary race, Davis said, including college-educated, and especially women.

“Donald’s got a more difficult task. He doesn’t have that many wells to go to,” she said. “He’s already got white, working class, mad-as-hell men, he’s losing badly among college-educated whites, especially college-educated women. He’s on a good guy tour.”

Trump has discussed changes in his immigration policy and giving attention to the needs of the African American community as a way to appeal to suburban voters who were previously turned off by his rhetoric, Davis said. Whether his plan is working or not should be made apparent in the next few weeks, she said.

“Is there a new Donald Trump? We’ll see,” she said. “Maybe he’s the original Donald Trump that we didn’t see until now, that that stuff in the middle was just the kind of lunatic Donald Trump there to try and get voters, and he was very successful at that. … There is clearly not a new Hillary. It’s the same Hillary we’ve known for 30 years.”

Following her presentation, Davis responded to audience questions including how Trump’s pivot might affect his original base. While that remains to be seen, most base supporters have a “stick-to-it-ness” that means they will remain with Trump even if he has pivoted on a few points, Davis said.

When asked about some of the comments being thrown around this election, Davis said social media has taken away barriers on what people can or will say. She said it seems like people can say anything, and she expects the election is only going to ramp up from here.

“If you think it’s nasty now, just wait until the first of October,” Davis said.

As the election moves forward and debates kick off, many voters will get most information through the cherry-picked sound bites and political ads, Davis said, adding that most people only soak in information that supports their beliefs. And while toss up states can expect to see a barrage of political ads, Davis said Alabama should not expect too many.

“We’re not playing. Alabama is red, it’s going to be red, I’m sorry,” she said. “And so this is a spectator sport for us.”